development of global CO2 emissions
Whilst worldwide emissions of CO2 will almost double under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 27,408 million tonnes in 2007 to 10,202 million tonnes in 2050 (excluding international bunkers). Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.1 t to 1.1 t. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity will even reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 32% of total CO2 in 2050, the power sector will fall significantly but remain the largest source of emissions, followed by transport.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will decrease global CO2 emissions even further, resulting in emissions of 3,267 million tonnes CO2/a by 2050 and a per capita level of 0.4 t CO2/a. This would mean an overall CO2 reduction of 84% from 1990 levels. Transport would retain the major share, accounting for 42% of all remaining energy related CO2 emissions.