In the transport sector it is assumed that, due to fast growing demand for services, energy consumption will continue to increase under the Energy [R]evolution scenario up to 2020. After that it will decrease, falling to a level of the current demand by 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, transport energy demand is reduced overall by 47%. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns. By introducing attractive alternatives to individual cars, the global fleet of light duty vehicles grows more slowly than in the Reference scenario. In 2050, electricity will meet 28% of the transport sector’s total energy demand.
To achieve the aims of the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario more drastic changes are required. Firstly, a further reduction in transport energy demand means less travelling, achieved partly by moving working and living areas closer together. Cities must be developed with short travel distances in mind rather than a huge urban sprawl. Secondly, increasing the share of electric vehicles significantly above the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario requires a breakthrough in storage technologies. Current battery systems for electric vehicles are still too expensive and too heavy and require a lengthy charging time. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are introduced in the advanced version in a significant share covering in addition renewable mobility for suitable applications and markets. Thirdly, renewable power generation must be able to cover the extra electricity demand from e-mobility and renewable hydrogen, as it would not save CO2 if this additional electricity were generated in coal power plants. What is certain is that with currently known technologies, electrification of the transport system is the only option which can move us away from inefficient combustion engines and phase out fossil fuels. If these technology challenges are overcome, a final energy share of 14% electricity in transport by 2030 and 50% by 2050 is possible. Hydrogen will cover more than 5% of the global final energy consumption in transport by 2050.