Energy Blue Print
Scenario for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years.

oil and gas price projections

The recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resulted in slightly higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Under the 2004 ‘high oil and gas price’ scenario from the European Commission, for example, an oil price of just $ 34 per barrel was assumed in 2030. More recent projections of oil prices by 2035 in the IEA’s WEO 2011 range from $2010 97/bbl in the 450 ppm scenario up to $2010 140/bbl in current policies scenario.

Since the first Energy [R]evolution study was published in 2007, however, the actual price of oil has moved over $ 100/bbl for the first time, and in July 2008 reached a record high of more than $ 140/bbl. Although oil prices fell back to $ 100/bbl in September 2008 and around $ 80/bbl in April 2010, prices have increased to more than $ 110/bbl in early 2012. Thus, the projections in the IEA Current Policies scenario might still be considered too conservative. Taking into account the growing global demand for oil we have assumed a price development path for fossil fuels slightly higher than the IEA WEO 2011 “Current Policies” case extrapolated forward to 2050 (see Table 4.3).

As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipeline infrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regions of the world the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gas prices are therefore assumed to increase to $24-30/GJ by 2050.

table 4.3: development projections for fossil fuel and biomass prices in $ 2010