assumptions for fossil fuel phase out
More than 80% of the current energy supply is based on fossil fuels. Oil dominates the entire transport sector; oil and gas make up the heating sector and coal is the most-used fuel for power. Each sector has different renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies combinations which depend on the locally available resources, infrastructure and to some extent, lifestyle. The renewable energy technology pathways used in this scenario are based on currently available “off-the-shelf” technologies, market situations and market projections developed from renewable industry associations such as the Global Wind Energy Council, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association and the European Renewable Energy Council, the DLR and Greenpeace International.
In line with this modelling, the Energy [R]evolution aims to map out a clear pathway to phase-out oil and gas in the long term. This pathway has been identified on the basis of a detailed analysis of the global conventional oil resources, current infrastructure of those industries, the estimated production capacities of existing oil wells in the light of projected production decline rates and the investment plans known by end 2011. Those remaining fossil fuel resources between 2012 and 2050 form the oil pathway so no new deep sea and Arctic oil exploration, no oil shale and tar sand mining are required for two reasons:
- First and foremost, to limit carbon emissions to save the climate.
- Second, financial resources must flow from 2012 onwards in the development of new and larger markets for renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency to avoid “locking-in” new fossil fuel infrastructure.