Energy Blue Print
Scenario for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years.

the development of the global wind industry

Greenpeace and the European Wind Energy Association published “Windforce 10” for the first time in 1999– a global market projection for wind turbines until 2030. Since then, an updated prognosis has been published every second year. Since 2006 the report has been renamed to “Global Wind Energy Outlook” with a new partner – the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – a new umbrella organisation of all regional wind industry associations. Figure 4.6 shows the projections made each year between 2000 and 2010 compared to the real market data. The graph also includes the first two Energy [R]evolution (ER) editions (published in 2007 and 2008) against the IEA’s wind projections published in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007.

The projections from the “Wind force 10” and “Windforce 12” were calculated by BTM consultants, Denmark. “Windforce 10” (2001 - 2011) exact projection for the global wind market published during this time, at 10% below the actual market development. Also all following editions where around 10% above or below the real market. In 2006, the new “Global Wind Energy Outlook” had two different scenarios, a moderate and an advanced wind power market projections calculated by GWEC and Greenpeace International. The figures here show only the advanced projections, as the moderate were too low. However, these very projections were the most criticised at the time, being called “over ambitious” or even “impossible”.

In contrast, the IEA “Current Policy” projections seriously under estimated the wind industry’s ability to increase manufacturing capacity and reduce costs. In 2000, the IEA WEO published a projections of global installed capacity for wind turbines of 32,500 MW for 2010. This capacity had been connected to the grid by early 2003, only two-and-a-half years later. By 2010, the global wind capacity was close to 200,000 MW; around six times more than the IEA’s assumption a decade earlier.

Only time will tell if the GPI/DLR/GWEC longer-term projections for the global wind industry will remain close to the real market. However the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook projections over the past decade have been constantly increased and keep coming close to our progressive growth rates.