Energy Blue Print
Key results of the energy [r]evolution scenario

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

global: development of global energy demand

Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for the world’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.2 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 61% from 499,024 PJ/a in 2009 to about 805,600 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand increases by 10% until 2020 and decreases by 4% afterwards and it is expected by 2050 to reach 481,050 PJ/a.

The accelerated increase in energy efficiency, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a sufficiently large share of renewable energy sources in our energy supply, is beneficial not only for the environment but also for economics. Taking into account the full lifecycle costs, in most cases the implementation of energy efficiency measures saves money compared to creating an additional energy supply. A dedicated energy efficiency strategy therefore helps to compensate in part for the additional costs required during the market introduction phase of renewable energy technologies.