Energy Blue Print
Key results of the energy [r]evolution scenario

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

global: energy demand by sector

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 5.3). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 40,900 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 12,800 TWh/a.

This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Deployment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active airconditioning.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can eventually be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.5). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 46,500 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energy related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards, ‘passive houses’ or even ‘energyplus-houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.

The energy demand in the industry sector will grow in both scenarios. While the economic growth rates in the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are identical, the growth of the overall energy demand is different due to a faster increase of the energy intensity in the alternative case. Decoupling economic growth with the energy demand is key to reach a sustainable energy supply. By 2050, the Energy [R]evolution scenario requires 40% less than the Reference scenario.