global: electricity generation
The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced worldwide will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and geothermal energy – will contribute 60% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 37% already by 2020 and 61% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 7,400 GW in 2030 and 15,100 GW by 2050.
Table 5.1 shows the global development of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaics solar thermal (CSP), ocean energy and bioenergy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 31% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity will be required. The further expanison of conventional power plants - especially coal in China and India needs to slow down immediately and peak no later than 2025 in order to avoid long term lock-in effects in coal the the related long term CO2 emissions in the power sector.