In the transport sector it is assumed that, due to fast growing demand for services, energy consumption will continue to increase under the Energy [R]evolution scenario up to 2020. After that it will decrease, falling below the level of the current demand by 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, transport energy demand is reduced overall by 60% or about 90,000 PJ/a by 2050. Energy demand for transport under the Energy [R]evolution scenario will therefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by 26% to about 60,000 PJ/a.
Significant savings are made by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario. A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled per year lead to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 44%.