Energy Blue Print
Employment projections

The Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney modelled the effects of the Reference scenario and Energy [R]evolution Scenario on jobs in the energy sector. This section provides a simplified overview of how the calculations were performed.

regional adjustments

More details of all the regional adjustments, including their derivation, can be found in the detailed methodology document.

regional job multipliers

The employment factors used in this model for all processes apart from coal mining reflect the situation in the OECD regions, which are typically wealthier. The regional multiplier is applied to make the jobs per MW more realistic for other parts of the world. In developing countries it typically means more jobs per unit of electricity because of more labour intensive practices. The multipliers change over the study period in line with the projections for GDP per worker. This reflects the fact that as prosperity increases, labour intensity tends to fall. The multipliers are shown in Table 6.4.

local employment factors

Local employment factors are used where possible. Region specific factors are:

  • Africa: solar heating (factor for total employment), nuclear, and hydro – factor for operations and maintenance, and coal – all factors.
  • China: solar heating, coal fuel supply.
  • Eastern Europe/Eurasia: factor for gas and coal fuel supply.
  • OECD Americas: factor for gas and coal fuel jobs, and for solar heating.
  • OECD Europe: factor for solar heating and for coal fuel supply.
  • India: factor for solar heating and for coal fuel supply.

local manufacturing and fuel production

Some regions do not manufacture the equipment needed for installation of renewable technologies, for example wind turbines or solar PV panels. The model takes into account a projection of the percentage of renewable technology which is made locally. The jobs in manufacturing components for export are counted in the region where they originate. The same applies to coal and gas fuels, because they are traded internationally, so the model shows the region where the jobs are likely to be located.

learning adjustments or ‘decline factors’

This accounts for the projected reduction in the cost of renewable over time, as technologies and companies become more efficient and production processes are scaled up. Generally, jobs per MW would fall in parallel with this trend.