Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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electricity generation energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for OECD North America’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.18 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD North America increases by 16% from the current 108,501 PJ/a to 108,501 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand decreases by 33% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 73,000 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level (see Figure 5.19). In the transport sector - for both freight and persons - a shift towards electric trains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicle is expected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric heat pumps, solar energy, electric direct heating and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand (final energy) in the Energy [R]evolution scenario increases in the industry, residential, service, and transport sectors and reaches 4,082 TWh/a in 2050, still 36% below the Reference case.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector allow a significant reduction of the heat demand relative to the reference case. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.21) compared to the Reference scenario: Heat production equivalent to 2,283 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by 67% to 9,554 PJ/a by 2050, saving 69% compared to the Reference scenario. The Energy [R]evolution scenario factors in a faster decrease of the final energy demand for transport. This can be achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. Consequently, electricity demand in the transport sector increases, the final energy use of fossil fuels falls to 1,451 PJ/a, compared to 27,203 PJ/a in the Reference case.