Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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heating supply

Renewables currently provide 11% of North America’s energy heat demand, the main contribution coming from biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 88% of North America’s total heat demand in 2050.

  • Energy efficiency measures can decrease the heat demand by 9% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario, in spite of improving living standards.
  • For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuelfired systems.
  • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications will lead to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.

The Energy [R]evolution case introduces renewable heating systems around 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems achieve economies of scale via ambitious support programmes 5 to 10 years earlier and reach a share of 52% by 2030 and 96% by 2050.

Table 5.8 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in North America over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.