Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that an energy demand reduction of 21,207 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050 compared to the Reference scenario, saving 69%. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobilityrelated behaviour patterns. Implementing attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower than in the Reference scenario.

A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant final energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 5% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, 33% by 2050.