Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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primary energy consumption

Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.30. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall energy demand will be reduced by 42% in 2050. Around 87% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.

The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 45% in 2030 and 87% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out in just after 2035.