Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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future investments in the power sector

It would require $ 9,800 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (through 2050, including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 5,872 billion or $ 147 billion per year more than in the Reference scenario ($ 3,928 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants adds up to almost 55% while approximately 45% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration until 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, North America would shift almost 95% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030 the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat and power plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 245 billion.

Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 5,775 billion, or $ 144.4 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 98% of the total additional investments compared to the reference scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.