The development of the electricity supply market is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 92% of the electricity produced in Africa will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal power and PV – will contribute 71% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 34% already by 2020 and 62% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 250 GW in 2030 and 639 GW by 2050, an enormous increase.
Table 5.25 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Africa over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 28% by 2030 and 40% by 2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and increased storage capacity e.g. from the share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.