In 2050, the car fleet in Africa will be significantly larger than today. Today, a large share of old cars are driven in Africa. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric power trains, will help to limit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of 1.3, reaching 4,400 PJ/a in 2050. In Africa, the fleet of electric vehicles will grow to the point where almost 20% of total transport energy is covered by electricity.
By 2030 electricity will provide 4% of the transport sector’s total energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under both scenario road transport volumes increases significantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the total energy demand for road transport increases from 3,100 PJ/a in 2009 to 3,940 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 6,390 PJ/a in the Reference case.