future costs of electricity generation
Figure 5.75 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario does not increase the costs of electricity generation in Middle East compared to the Reference scenario - if fossil fuel prices and investment costs are assumed according to the pathways defined in Chapter 4. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation and the high share of gas power plants in the Reference scenario, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be about 20 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 146 billion per year to more than $ 751 billion in 2050. Figure 5.75 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Middle East’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 44% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario.