The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced in Eastern Europe/Eurasia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 73% of electricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 32% and 57% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 560 GW in 2030 and 1,312 GW by 2050.
Table 5.37 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will mainly be complemented by electricity from biomass and photovoltaics. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.