Today, renewables meet 3% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s heat demand, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The construction and expansion of district heating networks is a crucial prerequisite for the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 45% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s total heat demand in 2030 and 91% in 2050.
- Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating by 42 % in 2050 (relative to the reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards.
- In the industry sector solar collectors, geothermal energy (incl. heat pumps), and electricity and hydrogen from renewable sources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.
- A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.
Table 5.38 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heat Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.