Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for India’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.96 for the Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in India increases by 206% from the current 29,149 PJ/a to about 89,100 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand increases by 70% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 49,600 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level (see Figure 5.97). In the transport sector – for both freight and persons – a shift towards electric trains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicles is expected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand in the Energy [R]evolution increases in those sectors. Total electricity demand reaches 4,050 TWh/a in 2050, 4% above the Reference case.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.99). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 3560 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.