In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand increase can be effectively limited, saving 12,541 PJ/a by 2050 or 68% compared to the Reference scenario. Energy demand will therefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by only 178% to 6,000 PJ/a. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario.
A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 58%.