Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand increase can be effectively limited, saving 12,541 PJ/a by 2050 or 68% compared to the Reference scenario. Energy demand will therefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by only 178% to 6,000 PJ/a. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario.

A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 58%.