In 2050, the car fleet in Non OECD Asia will be significantly larger than today. Today, more medium to large-sized cars are driven in Non OECD Asia with an unusually high annual mileage. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric power trains, and lightweight construction, will help to limit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of 1.17, reaching 5,700 PJ/a in 2050. As Non OECD Asia already has a large fleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 37% of total transport energy is covered by electricity.
By 2030 electricity will provide 15% of the transport sector’s total energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under both scenarios road transport volumes increases significantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the total energy demand for road transport increases from 4,588 PJ/a in 2009 to 4,856 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 11,514 PJ/a in the Reference case.