Today, renewables provide 23% of China’s energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 35% of China’s total heat demand in 2030 and 86% in 2050.
- Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future energy demand for heat supply in 2030 to an increase of 15% compared to 29% in the Reference scenario, in spite of improving living standards.
- In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-fired heating systems.
- A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.
Table 5.56 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in China over time. Up to 2020, biomass will remain the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.