key results of the romania energy [r]evolution scenario
5.1 energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Romania’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the E nergy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand increases by 33% from the current 903 PJ/a to 1,345 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand decreases by 10% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 811 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is exptected to increase in both the industry sector as well as in the residential and service sector, and to grow also in the transport sector (see Figure 5.3). T otal electricity demand will rise from 38 TWh/a to 80 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 19 T Wh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. However, total electricity demand rises also in the E nergy [R]evolution scenario as renewable electricity is increasingly used for heat generation and electric mobility.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the E nergy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heat supply is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 224 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.