6.1 methodology and assumptions
Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have published four global Energy [R]evolution scenarios. These compare a low-carbon Energy [R]evolution scenario to a Reference scenario based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) “business as usual” projections (from the WEO series, for example International Energy Agency, 2007, 2011). The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) analysed the employment effects of the 2008 and 2012 Energy [R]evolution global scenarios. The methodology used in the 2012 global analysis is used to calculate energy sector employment for Romania’s Energy [R]evolution and Reference scenario.
Employment is projected for Romania for both scenarios at 2015, 2020, and 2030 by using a series of employment multipliers and the projected electrical generation, electrical capacity, heat collector capacity, and the primary consumption of coal, gas and biomass (excluding gas used for transport). The results of the energy scenarios are used as inputs to the employment modelling.
Only direct employment is included, namely jobs in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance, and fuel supply associated with electricity generation and direct heat provision. Indirect jobs, induced jobs, and energy efficiency jobs, are not included in the calculations. Indirect jobs generally include jobs in secondary industries which supply the primary industry sector, for example, catering and accommodation. Induced jobs are those resulting from spending wages earned in the primary industries.
A detailed description of the methodology is given in Rutovitz and Harris, 2012a.
inputs for energy generation and demand for each scenario include:
- The amount of electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each technology.
- The primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and heating sectors.
- The amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear, oil, and diesel.
inputs for each technology include
- ‘Employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into manufacturing, construction, operation and maintenance, and per unit of primary energy for fuel supply.
- For the 2020 and 2030 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology which reduces the employment factors by a certain percentage per year to reflect the employment per unit reduction as technology efficiencies improve.
- The percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in Romania, in order to calculate the number of manufacturing and fuel production jobs.
The electrical capacity increase and energy use figures from each scenario are multiplied by the employment factors for each of the technologies, and the proportion of fuel or manufacturing occurring locally. The calculation is summarised in Figure 6.1.
adjustments for relative wealth
The global analysis adjusts OECD employment factors using a ‘regional adjustment factor’ based on the relative labour productivity (GDP production per worker) of regions compared to productivity in the OECD. This reflects the fact that labour intensity tends to be higher in countries where wages are lower. Romania has labour productivity that is one third of the OECD average. This is likely to result in higher job creation than is captured in the employment factors for the OECD.
Local energy sector data is only available for coal and gas production. In these two sectors, jobs per unit production are between two and four times higher than the average for OECD Europe. However, both industries have been state run and highly subsidised. It is not clear on what basis the newer renewable energy industries will develop, so a conservative approach has been taken and no adjustment has been made to OECD factors to reflect the relatively lower wages. This may significantly underestimate jobs creation in the new energy industries.
Employment numbers are indicative only, as a large number of assumptions are required to make calculations. Quantitative data on present employment based on actual surveys is difficult to obtain, so it is not possible to calibrate the methodology against time series data, or even against current data in many regions. However, within the limits of data availability, the figures presented are indicative of electricity sector employment levels under the two scenarios. However, there are some significant areas of employment which are not included, including replacement of generating plant, and energy efficiency jobs. Insufficient data means it was not possible to include a comprehensive assessment for the heat supply sector. Only a partial estimate of the jobs in heat supply is included, as biomass, gas, and coal jobs in this sector include only fuel supply jobs where heat is supplied directly (that is, not via a combined heat and power plant), while jobs in heat from geothermal and solar collectors primarily include manufacturing and installation.