key results of the japan energy [r]evolution scenario
1.1 japan: energy demand by sector
The future development pathways for Japan’s energy demand are shown in Figure 1.1 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in Japan decreases by 2% from the current 21,767 PJ/a to 21,362 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand decreases by 48% and 49% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 11,310 PJ/a and 11,114 PJ/a in the advanced scenario. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential and services sectors is expected to fall considerably below the current level (see Figure 6.2). The growing use of electric vehicles however, leads to an increased power demand reaching a level of 815 TWh/a 2050. Electricity demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is 498 TWh/a lower than in the Reference scenario.
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario assumes an immediate nuclear phase-out in 2012 and strict implementation of a variety of efficiency measure, both to reduce (peak) load as well as annual electricity demand. Following the nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011, Japan’s industry and businesses in Kanto and Tohoku regions were told to reduce their electricity usage by 15% from July to September. Other electricity consumers were also strongly encouraged to cut their power demands on voluntary basis.
After 2020 the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys - for both freight and persons - will be shifted towards electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution is higher and reaches 880 TWh/a in 2050, still 26% below the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 1.3). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,291 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by 50% to 1,761 PJ/a by 2050, compared to the Reference scenario. The advanced version factors in a faster decrease of the final energy demand for transport. This can be achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. While electricity demand increases, the overall final energy use falls to 1,391 PJ/a, 60% lower than in the Reference case.