1.6 japan: future investment
It would require around $1.0 trillion in investment for the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality - approximately $9.1 billion annual more than in the Reference scenario ($597 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in fossil and nuclear power plants add up to almost 85% while approx 15% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration until 2050. Under the advanced scenario, however, Japan would shift more than 70% of investment towards renewables and cogeneration. By 2050 the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat and power and efficient gas-fired power plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $22.9 billion.
Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Basic Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total $1.7 trillion, or $40.6 billion per year. The Advanced Energy [R]evolution has even higher fuel cost savings of $2.2 trillion, or $51.9 billion per year.
Annual fuel cost savings under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario are thus five times higher than the additional annual investment of $9.1 billion. Therefore fuel cost savings compensate for the entire investment in renewable and cogeneration capacity required to implement the advanced scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. Part of this money could be used to cover stranded investments in fossil-fuelled power stations in developing countries.