2.1 japan: future employment
Energy sector jobs are set to increase significantly by 2015 under both the Energy [R]evolution and the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenarios, with a slight increase in the Reference scenario. In 2010, there are 81,500 electricity sector jobs. Figure 2.1 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios and the Reference case for each technology up to 2030, with details given in Table 2.1.
- In the Reference case, jobs stay constant to 2015, and then fall by 5% by 2020 (a loss of 4,800 jobs relative to 2010), and then decrease further to 57,000 jobs by 2030.
- In the [R]evolution scenario, jobs more than triple to 260,000 jobs in 2015 (179,000 additional jobs), then drop back to 147,000 jobs in 2020, reducing to 119,000 jobs in 2030, a 46% increase from 2010.
- In the Advanced scenario, jobs almost quadruple to 326,000 jobs in 2015 (244,000 additional jobs), then drop back to 198,000 jobs in 2020, and 144,000 jobs in 2030, a 76% increase from 2010.
- Solar PV shows particularly strong growth, reaching a peak of more than 170,000 jobs in 2015 in both the [R]evolution scenarios.
These calculations do not include the jobs associated with decommissioning nuclear power stations, which would be significant in all three scenarios.
The overall trend in the Reference scenario is dominated by the nuclear sector, which loses 20,000 jobs between 2010 and 2030. These are not compensated for by gains in other sectors.
The [R]evolution scenario increase of 179,000 jobs by 2015 includes massive growth across the renewable sector (198,000 new jobs), with solar PV accounting for 87% of the increase, followed by wind energy and bioenergy. By 2030, bioenergy is the largest sector. There are significant reductions in jobs in the coal and nuclear industries, although these are dwarfed by the job creation in the renewable sector. By 2030 there are 119,000 electricity sector jobs, 49% above 2010 levels.
The massive growth in jobs by 2015 in the Advanced renewable energy scenario is mainly concentrated in the PV industry, which accounts for 66% of the increase, taking PV jobs to 172,000 by 2015, Wind also has very significant growth, reaching 73,000 jobs by 2015, as does bioenergy, with 32, 000 jobs. These numbers in PV and wind are not maintained, and by 2020 fall to 96,000 and 27,000 respectively. Overall electricity sector numbers at 2015 are 318,000, nearly three times the 2010 level. From 2015 to 2030, overall job numbers drop and the renewable sector becomes more diverse. Bioenergy provides the greatest share of electricity sector jobs by 2030, followed by PV, wind, and hydro. Overall electricity sector employment in 2030 is 144,000, 76% more than 2010 levels.