5.1 energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Mexico’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand increases by 114% from the current 4,279 PJ/a to 9,152 PJ/a (without non-energy use). In the Energy [R]Evolution scenario, final energy demand increases by only 20% compared to the current consumption and is expected to reach 5,136 PJ/a by 2050.”
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is exptected to increase in all sectors (industry, transport, residential and service sectors, see Figure 5.2) due to increasing GDP, population and wealth. Total electricity demand will rise from 201 TWh/a to 514 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 200 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are large. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heat supply is expected to increase (see Figure 5.4). However, compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 163 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.