Energy Blue Print
Archive 2012 - Mexico

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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5.2 electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 93% of the electricity produced in Mexico will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 81% of electricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 44% and 74% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 144 GW in 2030 and 319 GW by 2050.

Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Mexico over time. Today, renewable power generation is mainly from hydro power. Up to 2020, wind and PV will become the main drivers of the growing renewable power market. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind and PV will be complemented mainly by electricity from solar thermal power plants (CSP), but also from ocean energy, biomass and geothermal energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 36% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.