5.3 future costs of electricity generation
Figure 5.6 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases the future costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario. Already in 2020, power generation costs in the Energy [R]Evolution scenario are 1.1 $ct/kWh lower than in the Reference case. Because of high prices for conventional fuels and the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be 13.7 $cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario,on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 37 billion per year to more than $ 200 billion in 2050. Figure 5.6 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Mexico’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are more than $61 billion lower than in the Reference scenario.