key results of the new zealand energy [r]evolution scenario
5.1 energy demand by sector
The future development pathways for New Zealand’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand in New Zealand increases by 17% from the current 527 PJ/a to 626 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is similar to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 449 PJ/a.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 5.2). Because of the growing shares of electric vehicles, heat pumps and hydrogen generation however, electricity demand increases to 54 TWh/a in 2050, still 2% below the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 48 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a lower future energy demand.