5.2 electricity generation
The development of the electricity supply market is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2025, 100% of the electricity produced in New Zealand will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, geothermal and PV – will contribute 52% of electricity generation in 2025. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 94% already by 2020 and 100% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 13 GW in 2030 and 17 GW by 2050.
Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in New Zealand over time. Up to 2020 hydro, geothermal power and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind and geothermal energy will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a relative high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 23% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.