Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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future investments in the heat sector

5.6 future investments in the heat sector

Also in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. Especially the solar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need enormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity need to be increased by the factor of 50 for solar thermal and by the factor of 10 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are already rather wide spread still need to remain a pillar of heat supply.

Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated geothermal systems and solar thermal district heating plants.Thus it can only roughly be calculated that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around NZ$ 42 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately NZ$ 1 billion per year. Due to a lack of information on costs for conventional heating systems and fuel prices, total investments and fuel cost savings for the heat supply in the scenarios have not been estimated.