6.1 methodology to calculate jobs
Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have published four global Energy [R]evolution scenarios. These compare a low-carbon Energy [R]evolution scenario to a Reference scenario based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) “business as usual” projections (from the World Energy Outlook series, for example International Energy Agency, 2007, 2011). The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) analysed the employment effects of the 2008 and 2012 Energy [R]evolution global scenarios. The methodology used in the 2012 global analysis is used to calculate energy sector employment for New Zealand’s Energy [R]evolution and Reference scenario.
Employment is projected for New Zealand for both scenarios at 2015, 2020, and 2030 by using a series of employment multipliers and the projected electrical generation, electrical capacity, heat collector capacity, and primary consumption of coal, gas and biomass (excluding gas used for transport). The results of the energy scenarios are used as inputs to the employment modelling.
Only direct employment is included, namely jobs in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance, and fuel supply associated with electricity generation and direct heat provision. Indirect jobs and induced jobs are not included in the calculations. Indirect jobs generally include jobs in secondary industries which supply the primary industry sector, for example, catering and accommodation. Induced jobs are those resulting from spending wages earned in the primary industries. Energy efficiency jobs are also excluded, despite the fact that the Energy [R]evolution includes significant development of efficiency, as the uncertainties in estimation are too great.
A detailed description of the methodology is given in Rutovitz and Harris, 2012a.
Inputs for energy generation and demand for each scenario include:
- The amount of electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each technology.
- The primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and heating sectors.
- The amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear, oil, and diesel.
Inputs for each technology include:
- ‘Employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into manufacturing, construction, operation and maintenance, and per unit of primary energy for fuel supply.
- For the 2020 and 2030 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology which reduces the employment factors by a certain percentage per year to reflect the employment per unit reduction as technology efficiencies improve.
- The percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in each region, in order to calculate the number of manufacturing and fuel production jobs in the region.
- The percentage of world trade which originates in the region for coal and gas fuels, and renewable traded components.