5.1 energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for France’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand decreases by 12% from the current 6,212 PJ/a to 5,532 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand decreases by 52% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 2,989 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is exptected to decrease in both the industry sector as well as in the residential and service sector, but to grow in the transport sector (see Figure 5.2). Total electricity demand will decrease from 424 TWh/a to 409 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 139 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heat supply is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 1,157 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.