Sustainable transport is needed to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, just as much as a shift to renewable heat production. Today, more than a quarter (27%) of energy use comes from the transport sector, including road and rail, as well as intra-European and domestic (and intra-European at EU level) aviation and shipping. This chapter provides an overview of the measures required to develop a more energy efficient and sustainable transport system in the future, with a focus on:
- reducing transport demand,
- shifting transport modes (from high to low energy intensity), and
- energy efficiency improvements through technology development.
If some technologies will have to be adapted for greater energy efficiency. In other situations, a simple modification will not be enough. The transport of people in urban areas will have to be almost entirely re-organised and individual transport must be complemented or even substituted by public transport systems. Car sharing and public transport on demand are only the beginning of the transition needed for a system that carries more people more quickly and conveniently to their destination while using less energy.
The Energy [R]evolution scenario is based on an analysis of the entire global transport sector made by the German DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts. This section outlines the key findings of the analysis’ calculations for the whole EU 27 region which provides the assumptions for France transport sector energy demand calculations used in the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
9.1 the future of the transport sector
A detailed EU27 Reference scenario has been constructed, which includes detailed shares and energy intensity data per mode of transport up to 2050. Based on this Reference scenario, deviating transport performance and technical parameters have been applied to create the ambitious Energy [R]evolution scenario for reducing energy consumption. Traffic performance is assumed to decline for the high energy intensity modes and further energy reduction potentials were assumed to come from efficiency gains, alternative power trains and fuels.
International shipping and intercontinental air transport have been left out whilst calculating the baseline figures, because it spreads across all regions of the world and is difficult to assign to the EU 27. The total is therefore made up of light-duty vehicles (LDVs), heavy and medium-duty trucks (HDV and MDV), rail, domestic and intra-EU air transport and inland water transport. Although energy use from international marine bunkers (international shipping fuel suppliers) is not included in these calculations, it is still estimated to account for 9% of today’s worldwide transport final energy demand and 7% by 2050. It is therefore very important to improve the energy efficiency of international shipping. Possible options are examined later in this chapter.
The definitions of the transport modes for the scenarios are:
- Light-duty vehicles (LDV) are four-wheel vehicles used primarily for personal passenger road travel. These are typically cars, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), small passenger vans (up to eight seats) and personal pickup trucks. Light-duty vehicles are also simply called ‘cars’ within this chapter.
- Medium-duty vehicles (MDV) include medium-haul trucks, light-duty trucks and delivery vehicles.
- Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) are long-haul trucks operating almost exclusively on diesel fuel. These trucks carry large loads with lower energy intensity (energy use per tonne-kilometre of haulage) than medium-duty trucks.
- Aviation denotes domestic and intra-European 27 air travel.
- Inland navigation denotes freight shipping with vessels operating on rivers and canals or in coastal areas for domestic transport purposes.
Figure 9.3 shows the breakdown of final energy demand for the transport modes in 2009 and 2050 in the Reference scenario.
As can be seen from the below figures, the largest share of energy demand comes from passenger road transport (mainly transport by car), although it decreases from 63% in 2009 to 39% in 2050. Of particular note is the high share of road transport in total transport energy demand: 93% in 2009 and 90% in 2050. As of 2009, overall energy demand in the transport sector of the EU 27 added up to about 13.5 EJ. This level is projected to remain nearly constant up to 2050 in the Reference scenario. In the ambitious Energy [R]evolution scenario, implying the implementation of all efficiency and behavioral measures described in Chapter 9.2, we calculated in fact a decrease of energy demand to 6.2 EJ, which is less than half of the total transport energy consumption in 2009.