5.2 electricity generation
The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 98% of the electricity produced in France will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind and PV – will contribute 68% of electricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 32% and 77% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 165 GW in 2030 and 189 GW by 2050.
Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in France over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics, geothermal and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic and wind) of 57% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.