5.3 future costs of electricity generation
Figure 5.6 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario increases the future costs of electricity up to 2030 compared to the Reference case. However, this difference will be 2.9 €ct/kW at most. Because of high prices for conventional fuels, the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, and decreasing specific investment costs for renewable technologies, electricity generation costs will become more economically favorable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario after 2030. By 2050, costs will be 0.2 €ct/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s € 27 billion per year to more than € 66 billion in 2050. Figure 5.6 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with France’s CO2 reduction targets, but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are more than 22% lower than in the Reference scenario.