Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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5.10 primary energy consumption

Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.11. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand will decrease by 40% from today’s 3,490 PJ/a to 2,100 PJ/a. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 32% in 2050 under the Energy [R]evolution scenario (REF: 3,110 PJ in 2050).

The Energy [R]evolution scenario aims to phase out coal and oil as fast as technically and economically possible. Coal power plants are phased out by 2020.This is made possible mainly by the present overcapacity to produce power in the Netherlands and the rise of renewable electricity production. Oil combustion engines are replaced fastly in the transport sector by very efficient electric vehicles.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 24% in 2030 and 54% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out at the end of 2013.