Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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key results of the netherlands energy [r]evolution scenario

5.1 energy demand by sector

Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Netherlands’s final energy demand.These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand decreases by 6% from the current 2,064 PJ/a to 1,940 PJ/a in 2050.IntheEnergy[R]evolutionscenario,finalenergydemand decreases by 37% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach around 1,300 PJ/a by 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase in both the industry sector as well as in the residential and service sector, and to grow also in the transport sector (see Figure 5.2).Total electricity demand will rise from 107 TWh/a to 131 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the final electricity consumption of about 18 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. However, total electricity demand rises also in the Energy [R]evolution scenario as renewable electricity is increasingly used for heat generation and electric mobility.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heat supply is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 330 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.