Energy Blue Print

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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5.7 growth of CO2 emissions

According to the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE) for 2012-2021, the emissions of the energy sector should exceed 600 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2020. Projections for the energy mix in the reference scenario indicate that amount could double in the next 40 years, reaching 777 million tons by 2050.

In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, emissions from the energy sector would rise from 358 million tons of CO2 in 2010, peaking around 512 million tons of CO2 per year in 2020 and then fall to 312 million tons of CO2 by 2050. Despite a rising number of cars, industrial activity and overall generation of electricity, this reduction is can be attained by substituting thermoelectric plants with an expansion of renewable energy sources, use of biofuels and electricity in vehicles, and a reduction in the use of fossil fuels in industry and a reduction in the use of energy overall, by introducing energy efficient measures in all sectors.

The increase in emissions will accompany economic growth, but final energy use could trend downward given a more distant horizon, after the period under analysis, with lower use of fossil fuels in the transportation sector, expansion of new renewable energies, such as ocean energy, dissemination of technology for storing energy and gains in energy efficiency over time.