Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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future employment in the energy sector

Energy sector jobs in the ASEAN region are higher in the Energy [R]evolution scenario at every stage in the projection. By 2015, jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario have increased by 0.2 million, while jobs in the Reference scenario fall slightly. After 2015, jobs in both scenarios fall, reflecting the fact that labour intensity is reduced as prosperity in the region grows. Strong growth in renewable energy in the Energy [R]evolution scenario compensate for some of the job losses.

  • By 2015, strong growth in the renewable energy sector increases jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 21%, to 1.4 million.
  • In 2020, there are nearly 1.3 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and 1.0 million in the Reference scenario.
  • In 2030, there are approximately 1.1 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenarios, and 0.9 million jobs in the Reference scenario.

Figure 6.1 shows the change in job numbers under both scenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs in the Reference scenario fall by 18% between 2010 and 2030, with job losses in most technology sectors.

In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, jobs fall by 4% by 2030. Extremely strong growth in renewable energy reduces overall energy sector employment losses compared to the Reference scenario. Renewable energy accounts for 72% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomass having the greatest share (25%), followed by solar PV and then solar heating.