Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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future investment in the heating and cooling sector

Also in the heating and cooling sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating and cooling technologies. Especially solar thermal, solar cooling and geothermal and heat pump technologies need enourmous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heating and cooling sector. These technologies are practically non-existent in the ASEAN region today.The use of biomass for heating purposes - mostly traditional biomass today - will be substantially reduced in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and be replaced by more effcient and sustainable renewable heating technologies.

Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar cooling systems.Thus it can only roughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around US$ 1,258 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately US$ 31 billion per year.