Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the abstinence of nuclear power production in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 92% of the electricity produced in the ASEAN region will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, geothermal energy and PV – will contribute 70% to the total electricity generation. Alreday by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 29% and 60% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 427 GW in 2030 and 1,184 GW by 2050.

Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in the ASEAN region over time. Up to 2020 wind and PV will become the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind and PV will be complemented by electricity from biomass and geothermal energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 47% by 2030 and 72% by 2050.Therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles and other storage options will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.