Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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primary energy consumption

Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.11. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand will decrease by 27% from today’s 4,224 PJ/a to 3,085 PJ/a. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 40% in 2050 under the Energy [R]evolution scenario (Reference scenario: 5,133 PJ in 2050).

The Energy [R]evolution version aims to phase out coal and oil as fast as technically and economically possible.This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a fast introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 27% in 2030 and 66% in 2050. In contrast to the Reference scenario, no nuclear power plants will be built in Poland in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.