Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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A key target in Poland is to introduce incentives for people to drive smaller cars. In addition, it is vital to shift transport use to efficient modes like rail, light rail and buses, especially in the expanding large metropolitan areas.Together with rising prices for fossil fuels, these changes reduce the huge growth in car sales projected under the Reference scenario. Due to population increase, GDP growth and higher living standards, energy demand from the transport sector is expected to increase in the reference scenario by 24% to 879 PJ/a in 2050, 170 PJ/a higher than today’s levels (709 PJ/a). However, in 2050 efficiency measures and mode shifts will save 48% compared to the Reference scenario (879 PJ/a).

Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery-electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains. By 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 32%.