Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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heating supply

Today, renewables meet 11% of Poland’s energy demand for heating and cooling, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development in particular for environmental heat (from heat pumps) and solar thermal heat for space heating and hot water as well as for renewable process heat production. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 31% of Poland’s total heat demand in 2030 and 76% in 2050.

  • Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating and cooling by 28% in 2050 (relative to the reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards and economic growth.
  • In the industry sector solar collectors, geothermal energy (incl. heat pumps) as well as electricity and hydrogen from renewable sources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel- fired systems.
  • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.

Table 5.2 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating and cooling in Poland over time. Biomass will remain the main contributor to the growing market. From 2020 on, the continuing growth of solar collectors, a growing share of geothermal and environmental heat as well as heat from renewable hydrogen will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.